Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 37.606134 42.733151 48.836677 56.801405 67.184841 80.681347 100.349888
2025-04-20 30.732717 36.928743 45.093463 57.194568 75.846302 106.141756 167.297184
2025-04-27 26.634287 33.295053 42.754115 58.280640 86.095197 143.257532 324.848941
2025-05-04 23.810197 30.660415 40.967897 59.378682 97.227789 197.659682 872.318922
2025-05-11 21.587152 28.416837 39.155988 59.686189 107.327895 272.915113 7910.511682
2025-05-18 19.644714 26.258356 36.986613 58.549880 113.651881 361.616029 NaN
2025-05-25 18.301717 24.827520 35.741647 58.825795 124.355813 542.229855 NaN
2025-06-01 17.088877 23.442639 34.320571 58.275099 132.607649 827.226853 NaN
2025-06-08 16.016320 22.164261 32.886406 57.283753 139.015080 1324.937829 NaN
2025-06-15 15.114523 21.078706 31.653556 56.445402 145.843791 2540.604399 NaN
2025-06-22 14.370858 20.191017 30.676832 55.997030 154.583469 8716.260866 NaN
2025-06-29 13.592596 19.179483 29.338798 54.301710 156.201674 75091.843059 NaN
2025-07-06 13.387857 19.155961 29.969962 58.154238 194.881585 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.801927 18.409670 29.040289 57.363809 204.781341 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.375886 17.918855 28.587575 57.900298 227.262338 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.008097 17.505673 28.250750 58.726200 256.597163 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.626969 17.040694 27.750239 58.908072 282.712695 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.190034 16.445038 26.905108 57.742779 291.902623 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.875683 16.059875 26.492507 57.987696 323.721829 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.537351 15.609929 25.892808 57.438762 344.664993 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.198703 15.141893 25.213870 56.465823 357.540740 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.891511 14.718953 24.606370 55.644937 373.255258 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.625262 14.361658 24.123655 55.206039 398.768104 NaN NaN